Mastercard and Deloitte Release Forecasts on Holiday Consumer Spending Trends

Mastercard expects a 5.5% year-over-year increase in spending for the period between November 1 and December 24, noting this is the strongest holiday growth since 2022. This growth is expected to be driven by inflation, with about half of it coming from higher prices. Meanwhile, Deloitte forecasts a gain of 4.0% to 4.8%, reaching a total of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion.

The forecasts indicate that while overall spending is projected to rise, consumers are operating under significant headwinds. These challenges include high gasoline prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and the impact of tariffs, leading many to manage gifting budgets more carefully.