Prediction Markets Price Selic Rate Cut Amid Wall Street Decline
What happened
Wall Street fell on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 1.09% and the Nasdaq down 2.1%, which could weigh on Brazil’s market opening. Despite this, prediction markets price a 25-basis-point Selic cut at the Copom meeting on November 3–4 at 90.5% on Polymarket. Petrobras preferred shares gained 4.0% on Friday.
From riotimesonline.com
Why it matters
The Selic rate path remains the market’s anchor, with the central bank’s Focus survey and the IGP-10 inflation gauge serving as key catalysts ahead of the Copom meeting. A hot October inflation print could test the market’s expectations for a November rate cut.
Following the US jobs report, money rotated out of emerging markets, affecting Brazilian stocks.
From riotimesonline.com
Who's involved
- PetrobrasBrazilian multinational oil and gas corporation whose shares gained 4.0% on Friday.
- NasdaqAmerican fully electronic stock exchange that saw the Nasdaq decline 2.1% on Friday.
- PolymarketOnline prediction solicitation and aggregation engine pricing the Selic rate cut.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
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The entities involved
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Petrobras
Brazilian multinational oil and gas corporation
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Nasdaq
American fully electronic stock exchange
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Polymarket
online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine
Related events
- Financial institutions are tracking investor preparation and modeling portfolios in response to the ongoing Brazilian presidential contest.
- Petrobras announced an oil find in the Foz do Amazonas Basin, while a Petrobras-Ecopetrol offshore campaign concluded, amid a market rally sparked by Bolsonaro's lead.
- Congress promulgated a constitutional amendment, setting the fiscal and trade course of Brazil amid the presidential contest.
- Petrobras shares are now trading via American depositary receipts (ADRs) on the New York Stock Exchange.