Politicians Reference OBR Forecasts on Household Income and Living Standards
- Reports
- 3
- Developments
- 1
- Repetition
- 67%
New informationRepeats or wire copies
What happened
Kemi Badenoch claimed the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that real household disposable income would be lower every year. Robert Jenrick made a similar claim that living standards would decline every year for the next five years. The OBR forecast shows real household disposable income falling in 2026, but then rising in each subsequent year until 2031. The OBR calls real household disposable income a useful though incomplete measure of living standards.
Why it matters
The OBR's forecast for a decline in real household disposable income in 2026 challenges the economic platform of the Tories. The figures used by the politicians relate to how living standards are projected to change across the country.
Who's involved
- Robert JenrickCited OBR figures regarding UK public finances
- Office for Budget ResponsibilityProvided independent fiscal forecasts referenced by politicians
- Kemi BadenochUtilized OBR forecasts to support political claims
Possible ripples
Who this could reach next, traced step by step from the reporting. Possibilities worth considering, not forecasts.- Negative income forecast may challenge Tories' economic platformNegative RHDI forecast may challenge the Tories' economic platform and public supportLikely
- Opposition use of OBR data may challenge government's fiscal plansGovernment may face pressure to defend its fiscal planning based on OBR data.Likely
- How could the political use of OBR forecasts affect Jeremy Hunt's fiscal narrative?Political debate over OBR figures challenges government's living standards narrativePossible
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The entities involved
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Robert Jenrick
British politician (born 1982)
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Office for Budget Responsibility
an advisory non-departmental public body
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Kemi Badenoch
British politician and Leader of the Opposition to the British Government (2024–present) and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2024 (born 1980)
Related events
- Kemi Badenoch offered political and economic critiques, warning that Healey's budget could damage the economy and aligning with the Bank of England on borrowing costs.
- The Bank of England's policy decisions are informed by ONS data, which subsequently influences Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts.
- The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) model has been criticized for mispricing economic growth and omitting shocks.