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From ABN Amro: European Gas Storage Reserves Are Low, High Prices Expected

What could the depleted gas storage buffers mean for Europe's energy security?

Already happening What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

High gas prices and low storage reserves threaten Europe's energy stability European households and industries face sustained high gas prices due to depleted storage reserves and intensified competition for LNG cargoes. European benchmark gas prices have jumped more than 150% this year, driven partly by shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz that trapped nearly 20% of global LNG exports. Storage is expected to reach 75-78% by November 1, which is 10 percentage points below the five-year average. This low buffer increases the bloc's dependency on pipeline and LNG supplies, meaning any supply disruption could drive further price spikes and consumer pain.

Reported by 1 independent outlet Written Oct 17
Effect
Strong negative
How direct
2 steps, all reported
When
Over the long term
The story
Gone quiet

How it reaches Europe

Reported by news outlets

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The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • European benchmark gas prices have jumped more than 150% this year.rte.ie
  • European gas storage is expected to be 75-78% full by November 1, which is 10 percentage points below the five-year average.rte.ie
  • Storage typically provides 25-30% of winter gas consumed in the EU.rte.ie
  • In Germany, gas tariffs for new customers have already risen 55% this year.rte.ie

Why it matters

The current situation puts significant economic pressure on Europe's consumers and industries. High gas prices, which have already risen over 150% this year, translate directly into increased operational costs for businesses and reduced purchasing power for households. The lack of a sufficient operational buffer means that the continent is highly vulnerable to any future supply disruption, potentially leading to critical storage levels of 10-15% in a cold winter.

This crisis is reminiscent of the 2022 energy crisis, though analysts do not foresee a return to the extreme prices seen then. However, the structural dependency on external LNG and pipeline supplies, coupled with ongoing competition from Asia for cargoes, means that the market is unlikely to normalize to pre-conflict levels until 2028.

What we don't know yet

  • Will the EU's full ban on Russian LNG imports from January 2027 further tighten supply?
  • How will the unusually strong El Nino weather phenomenon affect gas demand and prices?

Is this still moving?

Gone quiet
Reports
36
Developments
1
Repetition
97%

What would change this answer

The Iran war is resolved and shipping routes normalizeThe competition for spot cargoes would ease, potentially allowing Europe to refill storage more quickly and mitigating immediate price spikes.
A cold winter pushes European storage down to 10-15%The risk of a severe supply shortage increases dramatically, forcing the bloc to make critical decisions regarding demand reduction and emergency imports.

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  • About Asia

    Since the market is competing with Asia for LNG cargoes, how might Asian demand patterns influence future European gas prices?

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The full eventABN Amro: European Gas Storage Reserves Are Low, High Prices Expected Everything aboutEurope

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.