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From ABN Amro: European Gas Storage Reserves Are Low, High Prices Expected

How could shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz affect the Middle East?

Likely What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Middle East LNG exporters face intensified competition and supply risks This loss of supply has intensified competition for spot cargoes, which were previously available to Europe. Consequently, the Middle East's LNG exporters face reduced supply stability and increased pressure on their market position as global competition for limited cargoes grows.

Reported by 1 independent outlet Written Saturday
Effect
Strong negative
How direct
Stated in the reporting
When
Within weeks
The story
Gone quiet

How it reaches Middle East

Reported by news outlets

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The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz trapped almost 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.rte.ie
  • European gas storage is expected to be 75-78% full by November 1, which is about 10 percentage points below the five-year average.rte.ie
  • European benchmark gas prices have jumped more than 150% this year.rte.ie
  • The conflict between the US and Iran is expected to be resolved over the course of winter.rte.ie

Why it matters

The Middle East is a critical global supplier of LNG, and its stability is vital to European energy security. The current supply disruptions, driven by geopolitical events like the conflict involving Iran, directly threaten the market position and revenue streams of major exporters in the region.

This situation mirrors the backdrop of 2022's energy crisis, where the loss of Russian pipeline gas caused European benchmark prices to exceed €350 permegawatt-hour (MWh). While analysts do not foresee a return to those extremes, the current supply constraints mean that the region's ability to maintain stable, high-volume exports is under significant pressure.

What we don't know yet

  • Will the expected resolution of the conflict between the US and Iran lead to a significant increase in LNG supply?
  • How will the EU's full ban on Russian LNG imports from January 2027 affect Middle Eastern market share?

Is this still moving?

Gone quiet
Reports
36
Developments
1
Repetition
97%

What would change this answer

The Strait of Hormuz experiences a prolonged closureThe trapped LNG exports would increase, intensifying competition and severely reducing supply stability for Middle Eastern exporters.
LNG supply growth elsewhere in the world acceleratesThe pressure on spot cargoes would ease, potentially stabilizing prices and reducing the competitive strain on Middle Eastern suppliers.

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The full eventABN Amro: European Gas Storage Reserves Are Low, High Prices Expected Everything aboutMiddle East

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.