How could the convergence of weather hazards affect Southern California?
Coastal flooding and erosion risks threaten Southern California's coastline. The combination of Hurricane Rachel and an El Niño-fueled Kelvin wave is expected to significantly raise the risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion across Southern California. The Kelvin wave, a feature of El Niño, can raise sea levels by 6 to 12 inches, increasing the threat to the coastline. Additionally, forecasters predict widespread south-to-west winds with gusts between 20 to 35 mph, along with high tides and strong rip currents, adding to the danger for coastal communities.
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How it reaches Southern California
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Forecasters warn that Hurricane Rachel, combined with the arrival of a Kelvin wave, is increasing the risk of coastal flooding and widespread rain in Southern California. The risk of coastal flooding is expected to peak on Sunday, and significant beach erosion is anticipated.
The full event1independent outlet -
Hurricane Rachel, currently spinning out in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to combine with a Kelvin wave to raise the risk of coastal flooding and bring widespread rain to Southern California. The Kelvin wave, a feature of El Niño, can raise sea levels by 6 to 12 inches, which increases the threat to California’s coastline.
1 report connects these two. Brind only summarizes; follow a link to read the reporting itself.
- latimes.com Thursday
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The facts so far
As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.
- The Kelvin wave can raise sea levels by 6 to 12 inches.latimes.com
- Tides in Southern California are expected to be 1 foot to 1.5 feet above what would ordinarily be expected.latimes.com
- Gusty conditions ahead Sunday are expected to be the windiest day, with pretty widespread south-to-west winds, anywhere between 20 to 35 mph gusts.latimes.com
- There is a 70% to 90% chance that rain will fall at some point between Saturday and Tuesday in L.A. and Ventura counties.latimes.com
Why it matters
Coastal communities across Southern California are vulnerable to these combined hazards. The reports note that some areas have already been impacted by coastal flooding events and are described as 'really vulnerable, without much beach left.' The risk is compounded by the fact that sea levels have risen by about one foot over the past 125 years along the California coastline due to climate change.
This situation is part of an unusually active, El Niño-fueled hurricane season, which forecasters say has a 95% likelihood of being the strongest in the modern record. This pattern, which typically emerges every two to seven years, is coupled with wide swaths of the Pacific Ocean reaching temperatures never seen before in the modern record.
What we don't know yet
- How will local infrastructure and emergency services in Southern California prepare for the predicted high tides and strong rip currents?
- What specific areas of Southern California are most vulnerable to the predicted beach erosion?
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About Storm Surge
Given the predicted high tides and strong winds, how might storm surge amplify the risk of coastal flooding in Southern California?
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Who else could feel it
Other possible ripples from the same event.
- city councilPossibleMalibu city council may need to coordinate emergency responses to coastal flooding risks
- Southern California Gas CompanyPossibleSouthern California Gas Company may face higher repair costs due to increased risk of gas main ruptures
- California Coastal CommissionPossibleCoastal flooding risks may trigger regulatory review and mandates from the California Coastal Commission.
- Pacific Coast HighwayPossibleCoastal flooding and erosion could threaten the Pacific Coast Highway infrastructure.
- Los Angeles CountyPossibleLos Angeles County may face increased emergency response demands from coastal flooding risks.
Reporting
- latimes.comThursday
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