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From McKinsey research projects AI could automate half of U.S. work hours

How could the McKinsey Global Institute's labor projections affect the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

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BLS analysis could be influenced by MGI's projections on AI and job shifts The research from the McKinsey Global Institute, which is now part of McKinsey, projects significant shifts in the US labor market due to technological change. Specifically, the MGI estimates that technological and economic changes could reduce labor demand by the equivalent of 36 million jobs over the next decade. This analysis, which details the impact of AI on various roles and the need for new skills, provides detailed input that could inform the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own future labor market analyses and projections.

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How it reaches Bureau of Labor Statistics

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The facts so far

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  • Technological and economic changes could reduce labor demand by the equivalent of 36 million jobs over the next decade.fortune.com
  • Roughly 770,000 workers a year may need to change occupations over the next decade.fortune.com
  • Office and administrative support roles face particular exposure to automation, with roughly 80% of current work hours potentially automated by 2035.fortune.com
  • About 85% of growing employment requires a credential or certification.fortune.com

Why it matters

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the primary source of official data on the US labor market, making its projections critical for policymakers, businesses, and the public. The MGI's detailed, forward-looking analysis on AI's impact and the resulting skills gaps offers a specific, data-driven perspective on how the labor market is expected to evolve, which could influence how the BLS frames its official reports.

This research is part of a broader conversation about the future of work, where private sector analysis often precedes or complements government data. The MGI's findings highlight that while AI may automate tasks, it also creates new responsibilities and requires workers to adapt, signaling a complex transition rather than simple job elimination.

What we don't know yet

  • Will the Bureau of Labor Statistics explicitly reference the MGI's findings in its official reports?
  • How will the BLS adjust its metrics to account for the rapid rate of occupational change projected by MGI?

What would change this answer

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a new report specifically addressing AI's impact on employment.This would indicate that the BLS is actively incorporating or responding to the types of projections provided by MGI.
McKinsey releases a public statement detailing how the MGI research is being used by government bodies.This would confirm the direct channel of influence between the private research and public policy analysis.

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  • About Consumer Price Index

    If technological change reduces labor demand, how might that affect wage growth and, consequently, the Consumer Price Index?

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The full eventMcKinsey research projects AI could automate half of U.S. work hours Everything aboutBureau of Labor Statistics

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.